Since no one asked, I’m going to share my thoughts on the direction of the stock market.
And let’s clarify before we get started, if you’re actually coming here for financial advice, then you’re not even worth the time to find a disclaimer to put at the bottom of this page. If you’re like the other 11 people who come here to see tits and ass and listen to me drunkenly ramble, here you go.
And now, since Jordan Rodgers and Jojo Fletcher are currently on CNBC giving financial advice/talking about Jordan’s closet homosexual brother
I feel qualified to share some of my own misinformed and bigoted ideas on what you should do with your money.
OK, so stocks have been rallying for all of 2019
On the above weekly chart, I’ve drawn a blue line denoting the resistance that we broke through after 2018’s end of year pullback. The depth of the trough and speed of recovery are what enabled the market to break out of the clutches of a bear trend and make new all time highs.
Glad you’re following
On a daily timeframe, you can see a Head & Shoulders pattern forming which should lead us about 50 ticks lower if we break the neckline.
Here is a closer examination of the pattern on a 4 hour timeframe
Here I’ve highlighted two gaps I would expect us to fill, further supporting the technicals
Ok, now that I’ve written a bunch of bullshit that I’m sure no one has followed, maybe we should turn to some of my fundamental thoughts on a bear market.
First and foremost, I feel as though the market has become overly optimistic over the idea of the Fed cutting rates next week, so much so that I believe we’ve overshot the potential benefits of easing policy. I think that the only way they do not disappoint is if they include further dovish guidance in their statement and cut 50 basis points, which is currently priced in at a 30% likelihood. If they simply cut 25 BP, I can see the market pulling back and at least filling the gaps I’ve highlighted.
I also would like to hear how they spin warranting a rate cut when stocks are at all time highs and the unemployment rate is at all time lows. It’s the equivalent of being 10 laps ahead in the Indy 500 with just enough gas to finish the race and you decide to gun it and try to set a single lap record rather than coast in for the win. Just bonkers and reckless in my (admittedly drunk and feeble) mind.
Then there are the geopolitical risks like Brexit, China trade deals, and a seemingly eminent Deutsche Bank collapse. After hearing all of my evidence, why would you be bullish stocks???
Bc you sound like this guy
I think in the near term, we’ll see a low around 2700. If this extends, I could see us falling below 2000, maybe have an extension to 1800 before the Fed really steps in and just starts buying stocks outright like the Japanese do. But I’m probably wrong, so next stop S&P 4000 and your 401k can thank me later. Just buy stawks.
-Finance Pug
P.s. some guys on the CBOT had never heard of Katee Owen
You’re welcome
White Trash Day Dreams 